{ "edition": "2026-08", "published": "2026-08-04", "methodology_version": "2.0", "composite": 57, "composite_exact": 57.45, "composite_delta": -2, "zone": "yellow", "zone_label": "Narrow Gap", "gap_ratio": 1.3, "keep_up_rate": 0.74, "keep_up_pct": 75, "reviewer_agreement": 0.15, "mean_change": 58.2, "mean_response": 43.3, "display_line": "August 2026: 57, down 2 vs July. Industries are changing 1.3x faster than companies are responding.", "headline": "The Hyder Index fell 2 points to 57 in August, the first time it has dropped since it began in May. Industries are changing 1.3x faster than companies are responding. Technology & AI moved down into the Narrow Gap, and Real Estate & Construction now has the widest gap on the Index.", "zone_counts": { "green": 2, "yellow": 7, "orange": 6, "red": 0 }, "industries": [ { "rank": 1, "slug": "real-estate-construction", "name": "Real Estate & Construction", "score": 65, "score_exact": 65.08, "delta": 3, "zone": "orange", "zone_label": "Significant Gap", "change_score": 54, "response_score": 24, "keep_up_rate": 0.44, "keep_up_pct": 45, "evidence_count": null, "evidence_strength": null, "change_ratings": { "customers": 2.25, "talent": 3.5, "money": 3.0, "incentives": 2.0, "culture": 2.5, "disruption": 3.0 }, "response_ratings": { "earnings_call": 1.0, "strategic_hiring": 1.0, "capital_reallocation": 1.0, "product_partnership": 2.0, "response_timing": 1.0 }, "note": "Real Estate & Construction rose 3 points to 65, the widest gap on the Index. Data center building and construction robotics funding pushed change up, while home builders answered a slow market with discounts. PulteGroup and NVR, two large home builders, did not mention AI on their earnings calls. The outside pressure is growing faster than the industry's response." }, { "rank": 2, "slug": "legal-professional-services", "name": "Legal & Professional Services", "score": 64, "score_exact": 63.67, "delta": 0, "zone": "orange", "zone_label": "Significant Gap", "change_score": 58, "response_score": 31, "keep_up_rate": 0.53, "keep_up_pct": 55, "evidence_count": null, "evidence_strength": null, "change_ratings": { "customers": 3.0, "talent": 2.5, "money": 3.0, "incentives": 3.25, "culture": 2.25, "disruption": 3.5 }, "response_ratings": { "earnings_call": 1.5, "strategic_hiring": 1.25, "capital_reallocation": 1.5, "product_partnership": 2.5, "response_timing": 1.0 }, "note": "Legal & Professional Services held at 64. Norm, a law firm where AI agents do the work and lawyers supervise, reached a $1.2 billion value in July. Cooley, a major law firm, launched Vanilla, a flat-fee service for funds work. Most firms still bill by the hour, so new rivals are moving faster than the big firms." }, { "rank": 3, "slug": "hr-future-of-work", "name": "HR & Future of Work", "score": 63, "score_exact": 63.08, "delta": -1, "zone": "orange", "zone_label": "Significant Gap", "change_score": 64, "response_score": 38, "keep_up_rate": 0.59, "keep_up_pct": 60, "evidence_count": null, "evidence_strength": null, "change_ratings": { "customers": 3.25, "talent": 4.0, "money": 2.75, "incentives": 2.25, "culture": 3.5, "disruption": 3.5 }, "response_ratings": { "earnings_call": 2.0, "strategic_hiring": 1.5, "capital_reallocation": 1.5, "product_partnership": 2.25, "response_timing": 2.25 }, "note": "HR & Future of Work eased to 63, and it was the only industry whose Response Score did not rise. Europe delayed its rules on AI in hiring, which took some pressure off employers. The Conference Board, a business research group, found only a third of workers got any recent AI training from their employer. Workers are using AI faster than companies are teaching it." }, { "rank": 3, "slug": "healthcare-medtech", "name": "Healthcare & MedTech", "score": 63, "score_exact": 62.83, "delta": -1, "zone": "orange", "zone_label": "Significant Gap", "change_score": 67, "response_score": 41, "keep_up_rate": 0.62, "keep_up_pct": 60, "evidence_count": null, "evidence_strength": null, "change_ratings": { "customers": 3.0, "talent": 3.5, "money": 3.5, "incentives": 3.0, "culture": 3.5, "disruption": 3.5 }, "response_ratings": { "earnings_call": 1.5, "strategic_hiring": 1.75, "capital_reallocation": 2.5, "product_partnership": 2.75, "response_timing": 1.75 }, "note": "Healthcare & MedTech improved for the second month in a row, to 63. England's National Health Service followed last month's staff rollout with a £10 billion AI program, including an AI triage tool in its patient app. Tempus AI, a health data company, agreed to buy the cancer-genomics firm Personalis in the biggest health tech deal of the summer. Once a health system decides to act, this industry shows the gap can close." }, { "rank": 5, "slug": "education-edtech", "name": "Education & EdTech", "score": 62, "score_exact": 61.92, "delta": -2, "zone": "orange", "zone_label": "Significant Gap", "change_score": 51, "response_score": 27, "keep_up_rate": 0.53, "keep_up_pct": 55, "evidence_count": null, "evidence_strength": null, "change_ratings": { "customers": 3.0, "talent": 1.75, "money": 1.75, "incentives": 2.0, "culture": 3.5, "disruption": 3.25 }, "response_ratings": { "earnings_call": 1.5, "strategic_hiring": 0.75, "capital_reallocation": 1.5, "product_partnership": 2.0, "response_timing": 1.0 }, "note": "Education & EdTech fell 2 points to 62 as its Response Score moved up from the lowest on the Index. The University of Maine System gave ChatGPT Edu, OpenAI's campus version of ChatGPT, to every student and employee. Cal State, the public university system, renewed its OpenAI contract. Most students still have never been taught how to use AI well." }, { "rank": 5, "slug": "media-entertainment", "name": "Media & Entertainment", "score": 62, "score_exact": 61.92, "delta": -6, "zone": "orange", "zone_label": "Significant Gap", "change_score": 66, "response_score": 42, "keep_up_rate": 0.64, "keep_up_pct": 65, "evidence_count": null, "evidence_strength": null, "change_ratings": { "customers": 3.75, "talent": 3.25, "money": 2.75, "incentives": 2.25, "culture": 3.5, "disruption": 4.25 }, "response_ratings": { "earnings_call": 2.5, "strategic_hiring": 2.0, "capital_reallocation": 2.0, "product_partnership": 2.5, "response_timing": 1.5 }, "note": "Media & Entertainment's gap got smaller for the first time, falling 6 points to 62. Netflix, the streaming service, said it used generative AI across hundreds of titles, and Warner Bros. Discovery, owner of HBO Max, added AI search to the app. Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery have a signed merger agreement but agreed not to close before a state antitrust trial set for March 2027. The leaders are now reporting AI results instead of plans." }, { "rank": 7, "slug": "technology-ai", "name": "Technology & AI", "score": 59, "score_exact": 59.17, "delta": -6, "zone": "yellow", "zone_label": "Narrow Gap", "change_score": 78, "response_score": 60, "keep_up_rate": 0.77, "keep_up_pct": 75, "evidence_count": null, "evidence_strength": null, "change_ratings": { "customers": 4.25, "talent": 4.0, "money": 4.5, "incentives": 3.0, "culture": 3.5, "disruption": 4.25 }, "response_ratings": { "earnings_call": 3.25, "strategic_hiring": 2.0, "capital_reallocation": 3.75, "product_partnership": 3.0, "response_timing": 3.0 }, "note": "Technology & AI fell 6 points to 59, moving from the Significant Gap into the Narrow Gap. Microsoft and Amazon, the two tech giants that sell cloud computing, reported fast cloud growth tied to AI, and several major AI models launched in July. Investors rewarded the companies that showed AI revenue and punished those that showed mostly cost." }, { "rank": 8, "slug": "energy-utilities", "name": "Energy & Utilities", "score": 58, "score_exact": 58.17, "delta": -3, "zone": "yellow", "zone_label": "Narrow Gap", "change_score": 68, "response_score": 52, "keep_up_rate": 0.76, "keep_up_pct": 75, "evidence_count": null, "evidence_strength": null, "change_ratings": { "customers": 3.5, "talent": 2.5, "money": 4.0, "incentives": 4.0, "culture": 2.0, "disruption": 4.5 }, "response_ratings": { "earnings_call": 3.0, "strategic_hiring": 1.5, "capital_reallocation": 3.0, "product_partnership": 3.25, "response_timing": 2.25 }, "note": "Energy & Utilities fell 3 points to 58, moving into the Narrow Gap. NextEra, a large power company, reported a record project backlog, and Dominion, another large utility, has a large amount of data-center demand in contract talks. Pressure kept rising too, as data centers pushed up the cost of the biggest US power auction. Both sides are moving fast, and change is still ahead." }, { "rank": 9, "slug": "direct-sales-franchising", "name": "Direct Sales & Franchising", "score": 57, "score_exact": 56.58, "delta": -2, "zone": "yellow", "zone_label": "Narrow Gap", "change_score": 49, "response_score": 36, "keep_up_rate": 0.73, "keep_up_pct": 75, "evidence_count": null, "evidence_strength": null, "change_ratings": { "customers": 3.0, "talent": 2.5, "money": 3.0, "incentives": 1.75, "culture": 2.0, "disruption": 2.5 }, "response_ratings": { "earnings_call": 2.0, "strategic_hiring": 1.25, "capital_reallocation": 1.75, "product_partnership": 2.5, "response_timing": 1.5 }, "note": "Direct Sales & Franchising improved to 57. Taco Bell, the fast-food chain, said its AI assistant now takes orders at nearly 900 drive-thrus. Its parent company, Yum, is rolling one technology platform, Byte, across all its brands. The customer is the harder problem, as Domino's and McDonald's, two large pizza and burger chains, reported softer demand." }, { "rank": 10, "slug": "manufacturing-industrial", "name": "Manufacturing & Industrial", "score": 55, "score_exact": 55.33, "delta": -1, "zone": "yellow", "zone_label": "Narrow Gap", "change_score": 57, "response_score": 46, "keep_up_rate": 0.81, "keep_up_pct": 80, "evidence_count": null, "evidence_strength": null, "change_ratings": { "customers": 2.5, "talent": 3.5, "money": 2.5, "incentives": 3.5, "culture": 1.5, "disruption": 3.5 }, "response_ratings": { "earnings_call": 2.5, "strategic_hiring": 2.0, "capital_reallocation": 2.75, "product_partnership": 2.0, "response_timing": 2.25 }, "note": "Manufacturing & Industrial edged down to 55. Factories added workers for the first time in almost three years, and Toyota, Bosch, and Hitachi, three large manufacturers, committed billions to new US plants. Humanoid robots moved from demos into real orders. Change and response rose together, so the gap barely moved." }, { "rank": 10, "slug": "insurance", "name": "Insurance", "score": 55, "score_exact": 54.83, "delta": -3, "zone": "yellow", "zone_label": "Narrow Gap", "change_score": 57, "response_score": 47, "keep_up_rate": 0.83, "keep_up_pct": 85, "evidence_count": null, "evidence_strength": null, "change_ratings": { "customers": 2.75, "talent": 3.0, "money": 3.25, "incentives": 2.5, "culture": 2.5, "disruption": 3.0 }, "response_ratings": { "earnings_call": 2.25, "strategic_hiring": 2.75, "capital_reallocation": 2.0, "product_partnership": 2.5, "response_timing": 2.25 }, "note": "Insurance fell 3 points to 55. Travelers, a large insurer, told investors it is handling some claims from start to finish without a person. State Farm, another large insurer, will require all of its agents to use AI every day under new contracts. The systems behind the scenes are going in faster than the AI products customers can see." }, { "rank": 10, "slug": "transportation-logistics", "name": "Transportation & Logistics", "score": 55, "score_exact": 54.83, "delta": 1, "zone": "yellow", "zone_label": "Narrow Gap", "change_score": 52, "response_score": 42, "keep_up_rate": 0.81, "keep_up_pct": 80, "evidence_count": null, "evidence_strength": null, "change_ratings": { "customers": 3.0, "talent": 1.75, "money": 2.75, "incentives": 2.25, "culture": 1.75, "disruption": 4.0 }, "response_ratings": { "earnings_call": 2.5, "strategic_hiring": 1.5, "capital_reallocation": 2.0, "product_partnership": 2.5, "response_timing": 2.0 }, "note": "Transportation & Logistics widened slightly to 55. Waymo, the driverless ride service, announced its largest single-day expansion, and Atlas Energy, an oilfield company, committed to running 100 driverless trucks by mid-2027. UPS, the delivery company, finished its network overhaul and raised its outlook. When customers start buying self-driving fleets, the technology has left the test phase." }, { "rank": 13, "slug": "retail-cpg", "name": "Retail & CPG", "score": 54, "score_exact": 53.67, "delta": 2, "zone": "yellow", "zone_label": "Narrow Gap", "change_score": 58, "response_score": 51, "keep_up_rate": 0.87, "keep_up_pct": 85, "evidence_count": null, "evidence_strength": null, "change_ratings": { "customers": 4.0, "talent": 2.0, "money": 2.25, "incentives": 2.25, "culture": 3.25, "disruption": 3.75 }, "response_ratings": { "earnings_call": 2.75, "strategic_hiring": 2.0, "capital_reallocation": 2.5, "product_partnership": 3.0, "response_timing": 2.5 }, "note": "Retail & CPG rose 2 points to 54 as AI shopping moved faster than most retailers. During Prime Day, shoppers who arrived from AI tools bought at a higher rate than other visitors, according to Adobe, the software company. Amazon, the online retailer, said hundreds of millions of customers used its AI shopping assistant in the past year. Product makers like P&G, the consumer goods company, barely mentioned AI shopping on their earnings calls." }, { "rank": 14, "slug": "financial-services-fintech", "name": "Financial Services & FinTech", "score": 48, "score_exact": 47.92, "delta": 2, "zone": "green", "zone_label": "Keeping Pace", "change_score": 56, "response_score": 60, "keep_up_rate": 1.07, "keep_up_pct": 100, "evidence_count": null, "evidence_strength": null, "change_ratings": { "customers": 3.0, "talent": 3.25, "money": 3.0, "incentives": 2.5, "culture": 1.5, "disruption": 3.5 }, "response_ratings": { "earnings_call": 3.5, "strategic_hiring": 2.75, "capital_reallocation": 2.75, "product_partnership": 3.0, "response_timing": 3.0 }, "note": "Financial Services & FinTech rose to 48, still in Keeping Pace. At JPMorgan, the bank's CEO Jamie Dimon said AI has already cut 30 to 40% of jobs in some units. The biggest US banks are building a shared digital-dollar system, while card networks and payment companies launched a rival stablecoin in July. Banks are moving faster than most industries, but their newest rivals ship in months." }, { "rank": 15, "slug": "hospitality-travel", "name": "Hospitality & Travel", "score": 43, "score_exact": 42.75, "delta": -1, "zone": "green", "zone_label": "Keeping Pace", "change_score": 38, "response_score": 52, "keep_up_rate": 1.39, "keep_up_pct": 100, "evidence_count": null, "evidence_strength": null, "change_ratings": { "customers": 3.0, "talent": 1.5, "money": 1.5, "incentives": 0.75, "culture": 1.5, "disruption": 3.0 }, "response_ratings": { "earnings_call": 3.0, "strategic_hiring": 1.5, "capital_reallocation": 2.0, "product_partnership": 3.5, "response_timing": 3.0 }, "note": "Hospitality & Travel improved to 43, the smallest gap on the Index. The World Cup raised room prices more than it filled rooms, and host-city prices are now coming back down. Marriott and IHG, two of the largest hotel companies, launched AI booking tools in the same week. Response is still running ahead of change in this industry." } ], "stories": [ { "slug": "technology-ai", "title": "Technology & AI moves into the Narrow Gap" }, { "slug": "real-estate-construction", "title": "Real Estate & Construction now has the widest gap" } ], "signal_watch": [ { "signal": "Customers: The Silent Ballot", "item": "AI shopping went mainstream this summer. In a CI&T survey, 74% of consumers said they have used an AI agent while shopping. In the same survey, 55% said AI makes them shop more. During Prime Day, shoppers who arrived at retail sites from AI tools bought at a 40% higher rate than everyone else, according to Adobe, the software company. A year ago, those shoppers bought at a 23% lower rate. AI went from a place people browse to a place people decide.", "sources": [] }, { "signal": "Talent: The Human Tide", "item": "Job cut announcements slowed, with June cuts down 53% from May. The bigger number came from a bank. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said AI has already reduced staff by 30 to 40% in some of the bank's units. AI was the top stated reason for US job cuts for the fifth month in a row. US employers announced 33,429 job cuts in July, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, the outplacement firm. AI was cited in 10,970 of them. That brings AI-cited cuts to 112,713 so far this year. The cuts are moving out of press releases and into everyday budgets.", "sources": [] }, { "signal": "Money: The Market Bet", "item": "The four biggest tech companies said they will spend roughly $600 billion this year on AI data centers and chips. This time, the market graded them differently. Microsoft and Amazon, the two largest cloud sellers among them, rose 8 to 9% because their AI is producing revenue. Meta, the Facebook owner, fell about 10%. Alphabet, Google's parent company, spent more cash than it took in for the first time since its 2004 IPO. Investors stopped rewarding big plans. They now pay for results.", "sources": [] }, { "signal": "Incentives: The Weighted Lever", "item": "Europe's AI rules took effect on August 2. Companies can now be fined up to 15 million euros, or 3% of worldwide revenue, for breaking them. Chatbots must say they are AI, and AI-made content must be labeled. At the same time, Europe delayed its harder rules on AI in hiring and lending until December 2027. The rules covering AI that customers can see arrived first.", "sources": [] }, { "signal": "Culture: The Tectonic Plates", "item": "High school students from all 50 states met in Boston and passed their own model AI law, the Students First Act. The vote was 82 to 16. Their rules: teach AI skills from the first school device, no AI on graded tests, and no AI-written assignments. One student said, 'We missed the mark with social media and phones.' The school superintendents' association is sending the plan to 10,000 school leaders. The generation using AI the most is the one asking for rules.", "sources": [] }, { "signal": "Disruption: The Switchboard Effect", "item": "The power grid sent the AI boom its first big bill. PJM, the largest US grid operator, hit the price ceiling in its yearly power auction for the third time in a row. The auction cost $16.4 billion. Data centers caused $6.3 billion of that cost. The auction also came up 6,831 megawatts short of its reliability target. Last month, rising power demand was a forecast. This month it was an invoice.", "sources": [] } ], "quote_line": "Per the Hyder Index, the August 2026 reading is 57, and industries are changing 1.3x faster than companies are responding.", "press_summary": "The Hyder Index reads 57 for August 2026, with industries changing 1.3x faster than companies respond, as Technology & AI dropped into the Narrow Gap.", "data_window": { "start": "2026-07-01", "end": "2026-07-31" }, "citation": "The Hyder Index (hyderindex.com), created by Shama Hyder." }