Six observable signals of change · Change Score: 86
Customers 5
Bills kept rising, and at the top of the scale. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on August 12 that electricity prices rose 4.2% over the past 12 months. PJM's market monitor, the watchdog for the largest US grid, reported on August 27 that wholesale costs are up 46% this year, to $56.7 billion. Data centers account for 9% of those costs. The Energy Information Administration, the federal energy forecaster, expects US power use to set records in 2026 and 2027. Georgia Power says its large-load customers will cut a typical home bill by $180 a year starting in 2029. Households pay more now on a promise of savings later.
Talent 4
Challenger, Gray & Christmas, the outplacement firm that tracks layoffs, reported on August 6 that July hiring plans hit 16,095, the highest July since 2022. Its analysts said the demand is showing up in aerospace, energy, and manufacturing. Siemens Energy, the turbine and grid equipment maker, has added about 30 medium gas turbine production units since 2025, per Utility Dive. It plans to raise transformer and switchgear capacity 50% by 2030. No utility layoff announcements surfaced in August. E2, a clean energy business group, estimated in July that project cancellations have cost about 470,000 jobs. The work is shifting toward gas, grid equipment, and data-center service.
Money 5
Capital pressure stayed at its ceiling. Statista reported on July 31 that Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon are expected to spend about $760 billion on capital projects in 2026. That is up from $413 billion in 2025. AEP, one of the largest US utilities, laid out a $78 billion five-year capital plan on July 30, per BigGo Finance. Duke Energy said on August 4 it sees $5 billion to $10 billion of extra spending beyond its current plan. GE Vernova's gas turbine backlog reached 116 gigawatts, and Siemens Energy's reached 69 gigawatts with lead times of three years or more, per Utility Dive. The money is committed, and the equipment is the bottleneck.
Incentives 5
Regulation is pushing in both directions at once, which keeps this score at its ceiling. Texas Governor Greg Abbott halted new data center approvals on August 3 pending an audit of every project in the ERCOT queue. On August 26, an executive order told the Energy Department to write rules within 120 days blocking some foreign-made transformers and batteries from the grid, per Utility Dive. PJM asked FERC, the federal energy regulator, on August 13 to approve a plan that connects data centers faster if they accept power cuts when supply is short. Duke Energy Florida asked its regulator to defer a data-center rate that state law requires.
Culture 5
Public sentiment turned into political money this month, and the score moved up. CNN reported on August 31 that more than $31 million has been spent this year on political ads mentioning data centers. More than 99% of that money was against AI infrastructure. In July those ads were more than 8% of all broadcast campaign spending. CNN also cited a July Fox News poll in which 70% of voters opposed building data centers. Texas Governor Greg Abbott, ordering his audit, wrote that Texans must come first. The Energy and Policy Institute, a utility watchdog group, found that Alabama Power redacted pricing in all three data center contracts filed this year.
Disruption 5
The gap between what is asked for and what exists held at the ceiling. ERCOT, the Texas grid operator, has about 474 gigawatts of connection requests in its queue, roughly 90% of them data centers, per the Texas Tribune. That is more than five times the state's record peak demand. PJM, the largest US grid operator, warns of about 70 gigawatts of new large load by 2038, per POWER magazine. About 15 gigawatts of plants have retired since 2022. NRG says it has agreed on main terms with a hyperscaler for a 1.2 gigawatt gas plant in Texas. Energy Vault says it will deploy 1.25 gigawatts of off-grid power for Texas data centers.
Company response · Response Score: 41
What They're Saying vs. Doing
Every major utility put contracted gigawatts behind its AI talk this quarter, and the score moved up. AEP, one of the largest US utilities, said it has 69 gigawatts of data-center demand under contract through 2030, backed by $2 billion of customer collateral. It raised its 2026 guidance. Southern Company said it added 6 gigawatts in the quarter, including a 25-year deal with OpenAI, and has more than 17 gigawatts contracted. Dominion reported 53.8 gigawatts contracted as of July, up 5.3 gigawatts since December, per Reuters. Duke Energy said it has 7.8 gigawatts signed and 15.4 gigawatts in late-stage talks. The gap is now in timing, with most service starting between 2027 and 2029.
Who They're Hiring
No utility announced an AI or transformation hiring push in August. The only hiring signals came from suppliers. Siemens Energy, the turbine maker, is adding manufacturing capacity for gas turbines, transformers, and switchgear, which implies factory hiring, but it disclosed no headcount figures. Challenger, Gray & Christmas, the outplacement firm that tracks layoffs, named energy among the sectors where hiring demand is showing up in July's plans. The industry is buying equipment faster than it is building teams to run it.
Where Capital Is Going
Capital kept flowing to gas and nuclear for large loads. Southern Company said regulators approved 10 gigawatts of new company-owned generation at about $2 billion per gigawatt. Vistra, the Texas power producer, is putting up to $1 billion into Helix Digital Infrastructure, a data-center power venture with KKR, NVIDIA, and the Kuwait Investment Authority. Constellation, the nuclear power company, has bought back $2.2 billion of its own stock this year. In Georgia, OpenAI will pay the full cost of infrastructure for its 3,200 megawatt site under state rules, per WSB-TV. NRG says its hyperscaler customer pays for the megawatts it builds, whether or not the data center runs them.
What They're Shipping
The deals got concrete, and the score moved up. Georgia regulators approved on August 26 a 3,200 megawatt contract between Georgia Power and OpenAI, per WSB-TV. It includes up to 1,000 megawatts of flexible demand response, meaning OpenAI can cut power use when the grid is tight. Vistra, the Texas power producer, launched Helix Digital Infrastructure on August 7 with KKR, NVIDIA, and the Kuwait Investment Authority. Constellation, the nuclear power company, signed about 920 megawatts of new nuclear supply deals, including a 176 megawatt deal with Walmart. The US Army picked five companies on August 26 to build and run more than 20 microreactors at five bases. Mid-tier companies that pursue tech partnerships still face less competition than the top tier does.
How Fast
ERCOT, the Texas grid operator, paused its data center connection study the same day Governor Abbott ordered the audit. It set a December 10 target for the audit filing. PJM filed its interim connection plan with FERC about six weeks after its July auction came up short and asked for a decision within 60 days. But five of the six regional grid operators asked FERC for up to 90 more days on its data center order instead of filing reforms, per Capacity. Physical delivery dates, 2027 to 2029, did not move closer.