How the Hyder Index Works
A transparent, repeatable method for measuring the gap between industry change and company response. Every number on this site can be rebuilt from the ratings in our data files.
The Hyder Index measures the distance between how fast an industry is changing and how well its companies are responding. Each month it rates 15 industries on six signals of change and five indicators of company response. A score of 50 means change and response are even. Higher scores mean a wider gap.
The Core Question
Every industry is changing. The question is whether companies are acting in proportion to that change. Disruption indices measure change alone. The Hyder Index measures change and response on the same scale, then reports the gap between them, because that gap is where companies fall behind.
The Two Sides of the Equation
Pace of Change
Change covers the outside forces reshaping an industry. They are observable, verifiable, and largely outside any one company's control. We track six signals.
Customers: The Silent Ballot
Shifts in buying behavior, expectations, adoption, and willingness to pay.
Talent: The Human Tide
Hiring and layoff patterns, new roles, skills demand, and wage pressure.
Money: The Market Bet
Venture funding, mergers, capital flows, and valuation moves into or out of the industry.
Incentives: The Weighted Lever
Asymmetric rewards. A regulator, platform, government, or larger player is paying off one specific move right now. Incentives mark a window that will close.
Culture: The Tectonic Plates
Public narrative, trust, norms, and generational attitudes.
Disruption: The Switchboard Effect
New entrants, technology breakthroughs, supply shocks, and structural rule changes.
Rate the size of the behavior shift, not its direction. People pulling back (a trust backlash, a new restriction, layoffs, money leaving) is change too and rates the same as people speeding up.
Company Response
Response covers what the industry's own companies actually did. Awareness does not count. Action does. We track five indicators.
What they're saying vs. doing
On earnings calls and investor updates, do companies describe actions with numbers, or only say they are watching? Where an industry has few public companies, we use the closest public equivalent, such as firm announcements or association data.
Who they're hiring
New kinds of roles, transformation leaders, and reskilling at scale.
Where capital is going
Budgets, capital spending, research, and acquisitions moved toward the change.
What they're shipping
Launches, deployments, and partnerships with real users, dollars, or headcount behind them.
How fast
How quickly companies acted once a signal became visible. Weeks rate high. A year or more rates low.
How We Rate
Each of the 11 indicators gets a rating from 0 to 5, in half points. Both sides use the same scale, so a 3 in change and a 3 in response describe the same strength of evidence.
| Rating | Change means | Response means |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Nothing observable in the month. | No observable company action. |
| 1 | Isolated, small signals. | Talk only. Companies say they are watching or exploring. |
| 2 | A few signals in one direction, modest or early. | Scattered pilots and announcements, few results. |
| 3 | A clear shift, backed by several independent sources. | Several leading companies acting, some with measurable results. |
| 4 | Large, widely reported shifts that change the economics of most of the industry. | Many leading companies acting with measurable results and real money behind them. |
| 5 | A once-in-a-decade shock, like the 2020 shutdown for travel. Reserved and rare. | Industry-wide, measurable action at the full scale of the change, within weeks. Almost never seen. |
Because 0 means nothing is happening, the scale has a true zero. That is what makes the Gap Ratio meaningful.
Rules that keep the ratings honest
- Same evidence bar on both sides. Only public, dated, sourced evidence counts. Surveys and company claims count for less on both sides. A press release alone is weak evidence on both sides.
- The data window. Each edition rates the previous calendar month. Evidence dated outside that month can give context, but it cannot move a rating.
- Who counts as responding. Response means the industry's own operating companies, such as law firms for Legal or utilities for Energy. Vendors, startups, investors, regulators, and customers are forces of change for that industry. No event counts on both sides.
- Two independent reviewers. Two reviewers rate every indicator separately, without seeing each other's work. The published rating is their average. Large disagreements go to a third review.
- Month to month. Reviewers start from last month's rating and move it only when new evidence from the month supports the move. Moves of any size are allowed when the evidence is there.
The Formula
A score of 50 means change and response are even. Above 50, change is ahead. Below 50, companies are responding faster than their industry is changing. Every step is computed by software from the published ratings. No score is set or adjusted by hand. All scores round half up.
The two independent reviewers' ratings differed by 0.15 points on average on the 0 to 5 scale.
The Four Zones
Each zone is one rating level of gap. Ten points on the Index equals change running one full rating level ahead of response.
| Score Range | Zone | What It Means |
|---|---|---|
| 0 to 50 | Green: Keeping Pace | Companies are responding at or above the level of change. |
| 51 to 59 | Yellow: Narrow Gap | Change is ahead, by less than one rating level. |
| 60 to 69 | Orange: Significant Gap | Change is one to two rating levels ahead of response. |
| 70 to 100 | Red: Critical Gap | Change is two or more rating levels ahead. The window for a proportional response is closing. |
How Each Edition Is Made
AI research agents collect dated public evidence for every industry throughout the month. Two independent AI reviewers rate each indicator against the written scale above. Software computes every score. Automated checks block publication if any number does not reproduce from the ratings, if any evidence falls outside the data window, or if any claim like "first" or "record" lacks a source. A separate fact-check agent then reviews every claim against its source. Claims that cannot be verified are cut. The Index is edited and owned by Shama Hyder.
Data Sources
Ratings draw on public evidence, including:
- Bureau of Labor Statistics employment data and the Challenger, Gray & Christmas job cuts report
- SEC filings, earnings calls, and company investor materials
- Venture and deal data from Crunchbase and major business press
- Regulators and courts, including the FDA, FTC, SEC, FERC, state agencies, and the European Commission
- Industry groups and research organizations, including Pew Research Center, NALP, J.D. Power, and trade associations
- Reporting from Reuters, Bloomberg, the Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal, and trade publications
Geographic Scope
The Index uses a US lens. It draws mostly on US employment data, US regulators, US-listed companies, and US consumer research. Where money or change is global, such as venture funding, energy investment, or EU rules that US companies must follow, global evidence is used and noted.
Limits
The Index rates public evidence, so it sees what companies disclose. Private companies and quiet internal work are under-counted on the response side. Ratings are expert judgments against a written scale, not direct measurements, which is why two independent reviewers rate everything and every rating is published. The 15 industries count equally in the composite, regardless of size. The Index is a measurement tool. It is not investment advice, a stock picker, or a ranking of individual companies.
15 Industries Tracked
Download the Data
Every rating behind every score is public. Current data: latest.json and latest.csv. Each month has its own permanent file, starting with 2026-05.json. The full score history is in history.json.
Version
Methodology version 2.0. All editions since May 2026 are scored under this version.